But note my weasel words “any given exploding star.” The thing about rare events is that, with enough time, they will happen. We again must think on cosmic scales: Generously speaking, one supernova per century is maybe once per human lifetime. But galaxies (and Earth) have been around for billions of years. That’s more than long enough for the probability of a too-close-for-comfort supernova to become a certainty. I personally wouldn’t bet against it. After all, we have convincing physical proof that it has happened in our planet’s past.