In July 2024, Labour won the most votes and seats in Scotland, benefiting from a 16-point swing from the SNP. The result was hailed as a political sea change and, for the party of John Smith and Gordon Brown, the beginning of a restoration. But in 10 weeks’ time Labour could trail in a dismal third behind Reform UK, as a fifth successive SNP government is comfortably elected. Only about a third of Scots who voted Labour in 2024 now say they will do so in May, with Reform and the SNP the major beneficiaries.